The fate of Bagram Air Base, once the largest U.S. military installation in Afghanistan, has been thrust back into the global spotlight. In a series of recent statements, President Donald Trump has publicly declared his administration’s intent to “get back” the base from the Taliban, a move that has sparked a complex geopolitical debate and drawn sharp reactions from across the globe. This renewed focus on a facility abandoned in 2021 highlights the persistent strategic importance of Bagram and the evolving power dynamics in Central Asia.
The New Rationale: A Counter to China
Trump’s primary justification for seeking the return of Bagram is not a renewed mission in Afghanistan itself, but a strategic imperative to counter China’s growing influence. During a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he stated that the base’s location is “an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons,” a claim that has been a central part of his messaging.
This argument frames Bagram not as a relic of a past war, but as a crucial forward-operating base for a new era of great power competition. The base’s location in Parwan province, approximately 40 kilometers north of Kabul, provides a vantage point for monitoring activities in China’s western Xinjiang region, an area where Beijing has been expanding its nuclear missile silo fields. For the U.S., regaining control of the base would restore a key intelligence-gathering and power-projection asset that was abruptly lost during the 2021 withdrawal.
The Historical and Political Context
Bagram’s history is a microcosm of Afghanistan’s turbulent past. Originally built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s, it served as a key hub for Soviet forces during the 1980s. Following the U.S. invasion in 2001, it became the central command and logistical hub for two decades of American and NATO military operations. At its peak, the base housed tens of thousands of troops, with extensive infrastructure including multiple runways capable of handling heavy cargo planes and bombers, detention facilities, and a sprawling network of command centers.
The abrupt U.S. withdrawal in July 2021, which saw American forces leave the base secretly in the middle of the night, was widely criticized as a “total disaster.” The Taliban overran the base just over a month later, seizing control of vast quantities of abandoned U.S. military equipment. Trump has repeatedly used the withdrawal as a point of criticism against his predecessor, arguing that he would have maintained a small force at Bagram to ensure a more orderly exit and preserve its strategic value.
The Diplomatic and Geopolitical Fallout
Trump’s public demand for Bagram’s return has been met with firm rejection from the Taliban. Senior Afghan officials have stated that they will not allow any foreign military presence on Afghan soil. While the Taliban has shown an interest in political and economic engagement with the U.S., they have made it clear that military re-occupation is a non-starter and would be viewed as a violation of their sovereignty.
China has also weighed in, with its Foreign Ministry spokesman warning against actions that would “stir up tension and confrontation” in the region. Beijing’s response underscores its own strategic interests in Afghanistan, including its economic investments and its “Belt and Road Initiative.” Both Russia and China have been actively working to increase their political and economic influence in Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal, making a U.S. return to Bagram a direct challenge to their regional ambitions.
The prospect of the U.S. re-engaging militarily in Afghanistan—even on a limited basis—is fraught with risk. It could reignite hostilities, destabilize a fragile region, and put American forces in harm’s way. While some analysts believe that Bagram’s strategic value for counterterrorism and countering China’s influence is immense, others argue that attempting to reclaim it would be a costly and ultimately untenable mission.
The ongoing public dialogue about Bagram Air Base is a clear sign that Afghanistan remains a key piece in the global geopolitical chess game. The future of the base will not only determine the course of U.S. foreign policy but also shape the balance of power in Central Asia for years to come.
